Scorching temperatures are accelerating evaporation, reducing surface water and drying out soil and vegetation, causing earlier fruit ripening and posing an increasingly dangerous threat to the Sonoma County wine industry.

According to US Drought Monitor research, Sonoma County has been experiencing severe drought for more than 20 consecutive months, depressing crop values and the availability of specific grape varieties.

Contrary to what some special interests would like you to think, climate change is not a theory. Michael E Mann PhD, director of the Earth Sciences Center at Pennsylvania State University published his hockey stick graph over 20 years ago, proving that exhaust from burning coal, oil and gas is warming our atmosphere at an alarming rate.

The Sonoma County Regional Climate Protection Authority set a target for reducing greenhouse gas "emissions to 25 percent of 1990 levels by 2020", but local solutions, however well-intentioned, are an insubstantial cure for a global crisis of the magnitude identified by Mann, whose latest book The New Climate Wars chronicles the fossil fuel industry's war against science.

Raging wildfires in 2020 brought on by drier conditions burned 67,732 acres in Napa and Sonoma. Some winemakers saw their vintages, farms and properties incinerated. But even those wineries that were spared by the fires did not go unscathed. The smoke from active burns can actually penetrate grape skins, damaging its flavor. Grapes don't need to burn to spoil.

In Sonoma County, the fires resulted in a 46 percent reduction in wine grape crop value, down to $347.7 million in 2020 from $645.4 million in 2019. And Napa's wine grape crop value was $440.3 million in 2020, versus $906.1 million in 2019, according to the USDA Grape Crush Reports.

The Cal Fire website still lists the causes of the Lakeville, Gulch and Glass fires in 2020 as "under investigation". But, with precipitation expected to become less frequent and droughts projected to become more severe, the notable absence of a clear link between climate change and what caused the Sonoma fires is probably another victory for the fossil-fuel PR machine in the war on science.

It was GOP consultant Frank Luntz who advised the Bush administration to drop the term "global warming" – which he found in focus groups to be “too frightening" – in exchange for the more ambiguous, innocuous phrase "climate change". With the exception of NOAA – which started using the term global warming again in 2020 – most US government agencies not only scrubbed the term from their websites in true Orwellian fashion, but they also stopped short of recognizing climate change as the cause of natural disasters.

In a democracy, people decide what policies and candidates to back by listening to public discourse. But if that discussion is carried out in doublespeak, and politicians deliberately mislead the people so they don’t really know what’s going on, decisions of social importance are made on the wrong basis. And this is one of the reasons we’ve been unable to adequately address climate change.

So far, the Sonoma Coast and the Russian River Valley, two appellations frequently enveloped in coastal fog, have escaped the wildfires. "The higher the humidity, the lower the temperatures, the lower the fire danger. Historically, places like Santa Cruz had very low fire activity. But that’s changing. Areas that had low fire danger in the past are starting to become more fire prone. “So it really is an indication of climate change extending the fire season," says Cal Fire Battalion Chief Jon Heggie.

Bodega Bay, on the Sonoma Coast, typically maintains a thick marine layer. But for a natural environment rich in combustible fuel, that coast fog blanket has become less of a guarantee against the threat of wildfires. "If the drought continues, it will extend peak burning periods. We're really in fire season year round," says Heggie.

That means incidents will have more of an overlap between ripening and harvest periods – when grapes are susceptible to smoke taint – to active burns. This is exactly what happened with the Glass fire, which broke out mid-harvest season. “It ruined our entire crop. The smoke taint affected all of our fruit. The wineries rejected it. End of story,” says Greg J. Conklin, a Sonoma County grape grower who recently sold his 23 acres of vineyards in Sebastopol.

For Sonoma country winemakers, the effects of extreme drought are already here. "On Moonshine Road – less than a mile from where we host wine tastings and grow grapes – half a dozen wells have gone dry. It's sobering," says Ross Halleck of Halleck Vineyard, which did not make a 2020 vintage because of the risk of smoke taint.

Rising temperatures are also reducing the percent of acreage suitable for planting some of Sonoma County's most prized varietals, which include Pinot Noir, Chardonnay and Sauvignon Blanc. Furthermore, water curtailments are expected to be imposed until significant precipitation occurs, according to the California State Water Resources Control Board.

"More attention is being paid to the influence of not just climate change, but the resilience of varietals to things like the salinity of the water table, smoke taint uptake and grape skin thickness. These considerations, which were concepts we barely even touched on in the '90s, are all serious considerations in determining what to plant," says Damien Wilson, Fellow at the School of Business at Sonoma State. Sauvignon Blanc from Northern California, which is made from grapes that are more susceptible to smoke taint, was in short supply after the Glass fire.

© CalFire | The Glass fire in 2020 saw some grape varieties in short supply due to smoke taint.

Climate change and viticulture are no longer intangibles. "As a result of climate change, some of the warmer sites in the Russian River Valley and on the Sonoma Coast are going to become less suited to growing Pinot Noir grapes,” says Rick Davis, a cool climate viticulture expert who's been the Halleck Vineyard winemaker for decades.

To offset the increased risk of losing crops to smoke taint, many growers have added language to their wine grape purchase agreements to protect them against climate related threats such as "fires, storms, floods, inclement weather" and even geopolitical threats such as "riots, insurrection, war blockage, explosions and acts of government agencies" among other foreseeable risks.

"These new clauses we're seeing in wine grape purchase contracts are a direct result of extreme drought caused by climate change," says Jennifer Halleck of Halleck Vineyard.

"Prices for Sonoma County Sauvignon Blanc went up at least 20 percent this year. Sauvignon Blanc grape prices, which are usually $1600 to $2500 per ton, have gone up as high as $3800 per ton," says Davis. One ton of grapes makes 720 to 780 bottles, or 60 to 65 cases of wine. That means for Sauvignon Blanc, winemakers are spending as much as $5.28 per bottle on grapes alone, which could go higher as plantable acreage and harvest yields decline.

"We're going to see a contraction in the ability of appellations to keep their yields and volume at the same level. If demand is persistent, we should assume wine prices will rise," says Robert Eyler, Professor of Economics at Sonoma State. Sonoma County winemakers are also raising wine tasting room prices.

The impact of climate change on wine prices is a global trend. "If you look at the average price, English sparkling wine commands a higher premium than Champagne. That is a stunning realization. England is a region we never expected to see serious grape growing happening. There are even vineyards in northern Sweden now," says Wilson.

Climate change is a global phenomenon. "France, a major center of winemaking for centuries, is experiencing increasingly higher temperatures and extreme weather conditions that have damaged vintages, and livelihoods; this past year was particularly dramatic," wrote 60 Minutes reporter Lesley Stahl.

To adapt, some Southern European winemakers are planting vines in England to escape the heat. "Today, a new industry has taken root: healthy vineyards in England are producing some of the world's best wines," says Stahl. Could a similar trend drive Sonoma County vintners further north in search of cooler growing climates?

"Places like British Columbia, Washington and Oregon, because of climate change, are able to produce hotter climate varietals, like Cabernet and Merlot versus Pinots. So you might see more Cabernet on the market and less Pinot. There may also be inter-market shifts among different varietals that are only on the supply side," says Eyler.

"Washington and Oregon have very viable wine growing areas. But we all are suffering from a drought. It's not just California. Eastern Oregon is in a terrible drought. Washington state has its own issues. So the risk is all over the west coast. Some conditions might be better in Washington state than in Northern California for growing fruit, but if they don't have water, it doesn't matter,” says Conklin.

But despite the existential risks of climate change, and alarm bells being sounded by climatologists for more than 20 years now, elected leaders are yet to take any significant action to reduce emissions. In fact, developers continue to ignore the risks and build homes and commercial properties in fire prone areas. "A recent study found that, between 1990 and 2010, areas with the highest fire risk have had the fastest population growth, including in California and Texas," writes Somini Sengupta, global correspondent on climate at The New York Times.

If the current trajectory continues, single-vineyard, small-batch varietals from Sonoma County appellations may become increasingly rare and expensive.

Eric Schwartzman leads digital marketing for Sebastopol-based winemaker Halleck Vineyard. He was digital communications advisor to Secretary John Kerry during COP21, where a legally binding international treaty on climate change was adopted by 196 parties. He is also the author of The Digital Pivot: Secrets of Online Marketing.

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